Estimated costs of extended low-rate airframe production

  • 61 Pages
  • 4.97 MB
  • English
Rand , Santa Monica, CA
United States. Air Force -- Aviation supplies and stores -- Costs., Airplanes, Military -- C
StatementDavid J. Dreyfuss, Joseph P. Large.
Series[Report] - Rand Corporation ; R-2243-AF
ContributionsLarge, Joseph P., joint author.
LC ClassificationsAS36 .R3 R-2243, TL685.3 .R3 R-2243
The Physical Object
Paginationvii, 61 p. ;
ID Numbers
Open LibraryOL4717585M
LC Control Number78004219

Get this from a library. Estimated costs of extended low-rate airframe production. [David Dreyfuss; Joseph P Large; Rand Corporation.; Project Air Force (U.S.)]. This report discusses the cost of extending initial low-rate production while tests of early production articles continue.

The relatively small resultant cost increases can potentially be offset by the delivery of more capable production items, lessened needs for postdelivery modification or retrofit, and lower total-life system costs. 61 : David J Dreyfuss, Joseph P Large.

It then proceeds to a quantitative analysis of the cost implications of various materials and manufacturing techniques on airframe production, drawing both from an industry survey and from analysis of industry data.

The data thus derived are then integrated with those of a comprehensive historical by: vey on the relative costs of producing airframe structures from vari-ous materials.

This survey followed the same format as that in Resetar, Rogers, and Hess (). It collected estimates on the rela-tive costs of seven materials by six labor categories, as described be-low. The second type of data we collected consisted of actual recur.

Airframe costs also encompass the integration and installation of the propulsion, avionics, and armament subsystems into the airframe but not those efforts directly related to their development and manufacture.

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The cost estimate does not include training, support equipment, data, and spares. solely on the basis of airframe weight and production quantity. For a given quantity all aircraft were estimated from the same curve.

In the years since then estimators have been searching for other aircraft characteristics that (1) will, in combination with weight, provide consistently accurate estimates, (2) are logically related to cost, and.

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHA () An Evaluation of an Airframe Cost-Estimating Relationship H. STEKLER ABSTRACT This paper examines the forecasting accuracy of an airframe cost-estimating relationship to determine whether such a relationship, which contains no explicit technological change variables, might exhibit any.

Development and production cost simulation results Fig. 3 parameter sensitivity map As can be seen from the simulation results, because of the uncertain variables of uncertain cause cost, development and production costs calculated is an interval value which is s imilar to normal distribution, the mean standard deviation is $, standard.

Description Estimated costs of extended low-rate airframe production PDF

Development Cost Data For your reference: $/lb assembled from public domain weight and total cost estimates plus representative NRC breakdown by aircraft part (see Markish). Tool Engineering ME Design Tool Fab Support Totals % $7, $1, $1, $6, $ $17, $20, $5, $5, $18, $2, $52,   1. Introduction.

In aviation industry, production cost estimation is of significant importance in early design stage. A total of 85% of the overall Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is determined by design choices at the end of the preliminary design stage, while 95% of the LCC is locked at the end of the detailed ft production cost accounts for around 32% of the LCC.

As a final point of interest, these nodes will produce time standards than can be fed back through the database so as to determine estimated costs and production lead times.

The standards will be able to furnish infor- mation for future feedback analysis enhancements. Scheduling Figure 9 presents an expansion of node A4, "Control Production".

The Airframe Maintenance Cost (AMC) is the sum of the cost of AirFrame Labor (AFL) and airframe materials (AFM): (15) AMC = AFL + AFM (16) AFL = × AFW + / AFW + 75 × + × t f × R labor (17) AFM = AFP × + × t f where t f is the flight time, AFW is the airframe weight, R labor is the labor rate (USD66 as per Ref.

• Average unit cost for 8 selected majors increased from to cents (4%) between • The top four major carriers have very similar unit costs in this time period • Unit cost increased dramatically between and for Continental (17%) and USAir (24%) • Southwest and America West had the lowest unit cost, while.

First, they surveyed the military airframe industry to obtain estimates of how aircraft production costs varied with airframe structure material mix. Put more precisely, estimates were collected on the relative costs—expressed in labor hours expended per pound of material—of seven different airframe materials broken down into six labor.

Disclaimer. The use of these calculators, maps or any information shall be at the user’s sole risk. Such use shall constitute a release and agreement to hold harmless, defend and indemnify Freight Metrics from and against any liability (including but not limited to liability for special, indirect or consequential damages) in connection with such use.

labor rates (-$7, million) and revised airframe and subcontractor estimates that incorporate the latest actual costs from early Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP) lots.

cost per flying hour (CPFH) for structures containing a large percentage of composite materials. These estimated cost-ratios are some of the most important tools that decision makers use in determining whether to continue or start production of a new weapon system.

Airbus publishes a price list, according to which the A average price was 97 Mio. USD in But this includes a proportion of development cost and a healthy profit. Now include that airliners are sold at steep discounts (look here for detail. Estimates of the cost of modification for the B, C, C-5, and EF were compared with cost data from industry.

Considerable informed judgment is required as is a knowledge of such program-specific facts as whether the original production tooling still exists. COST ESTIMATES: GUIDING PRINCIPLES AND STRUCTURE 1 A. Introduction 1 B. Guiding Principles 2 C.

Main Project Cost Elements 3 D. Base Cost Estimates 3 E. Contingencies 6 F. Financial Charges During Implementation 7 III. PREPARING, REVIEWING, MONITORING AND UPDATING THE COST ESTIMATES 11 A. Steps for Preparing the Cost Estimates the total airframe-hour penalty associated with using nonaluminum material rather than the penalty associated with just one part of hours.

Table shows our estimates of the γ l m, the cost ratios appropriate for applying at the all-airframe labor level for the late s based on our survey. They are related to the C l m of Table by. This report presents generalized equations for estimating the development and production costs of aircraft airframes.

It provides separate cost estimating relationships (CERs) for engineering, tooling, manufacturing labor, and quality-control hours; manufacturing material, development support, and flight-test cost; and total program cost.

The CERs, expressed in the form of exponential. estimated cost is subject to change as better cost data become available.

The prototyping effort will provide better information concerning the cost to produce the ATF. Total production quantities could increase, and unit costs could decrease if the Navy replaces the F with the ATF or an.4TF variant. SAR of J ' A contemplated stretchout of the production program from eight to ten years ml1 doubtlessly fncrease the estimate for production of $1, million, stated in FY escalated dollars, As of Jprogram acquisition unit cost was estimated at $ million.

The estimated manufacturing hours for your airframe is hours Simple Linear Regression A least squares regression analysis gives an equation for the relationship between two variables. overall airframe costs was developed.

The method, which is suitable for use in a program's conceptual stage when little detailed design information is available, takes into account not only the cost of the airframe structure but also the cost of the airframe subsystems (e.g., elec.

Time series estimates.

Details Estimated costs of extended low-rate airframe production PDF

The production function or cost function of the firm can be measured by observing the firm as it reacts to different stimuli— such as changes in relative factor and output prices. A time series of observations will produce variations in output, inputs, and cost from which production and cost functions can be traced.

When new, the costs associated with the airframe are relatively low and rise steadily, whilst still under manufacturer’s warranty, levelling off as maturity is reached (after around five years). A mature aircraft has a steady, predictable maintenance cost, which begins to rise again after around 15 years, as airframe and components age.

Aircraft Airframe Cost Estimating Relationships: Study Approach and Conclusions (Rand Report) [Hess, Ronald Wayne, Romanoff, H. P.] on *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. Aircraft Airframe Cost Estimating Relationships: Study Approach and Conclusions (Rand Report). F Raptor Cost.

Two contracts totaling $ billion ($ billion for the airframe and $ billion for engines) were awarded for Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) of the F. That act limited the total cost of F production but did not specify the total number of aircraft to be procured.

The most recent production costs estimates were completed by the Air Force and the Office of the Secretary of Defense in Both of these estimates considered cost reduction initiatives known as production cost reduction plans.Marine Corps, and Navy at an estimated total acquisition cost, as of December,of about $ billion in constant (i.e., inflation-adjusted) FY dollars.2 U.S.

allies are expected to purchase hundreds of additional Fs, and eight foreign nations are cost-sharing partners in the program.

This report discusses the effects of airframe material mix andmanufacturing techniques on airframe costs, emphasizing the effectof new manufacturing techniques. It also presents statistical analy-sesof a new airframe historical cost data set, MACDAR, which isowned by the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA).This project was requested by Manufacturer: RAND Corporation.